Tears, Bloodshed, And Terror Ahead

Posted January 31st, 2011 by Iron Mike

The forces of change are moving – a kind of ‘change’ that Obama knows nothing about.

In Obama’s world change is something that happens when enlightened socialist like him get power over the institutions of governance, and use them to alter society.  That’s a key reason why he was so dismissive of the TEA Parties for two years.  To him they were just unruly mobs of ungrateful middle-aged white people.

But now it’s been seven days of growing crowds on the streets of Egypt’s major cities.  The people in the streets are mostly young – under 30.  While some are undoubtedly radical Islamists, most are simple poor and middle class kids who see no chance for a job, no chance for an income, and thus no chance to claim a bride.  The Egypt they’re always known isn’t getting any better under Mubarak and they want a fresh start.

The history of the Third World is the history of emperors and kings ruling by divine right and force – often balancing opposing ethnic groups in a delicate political ballet.  They were usually overthrown by army officers – often the impatient majors and colonels rather than the generals.  

As I write this, I can think of very few occasions where the people have successfully thrown off a monarch or a dictator, and fewer still by peaceful means.  India is often cited as an example of a peaceful movement – Gandhi’s tactics of ‘passive resistance’ for instance were copied here in the 60s and 70s by the hippies, the anti-war movement, and the civil rights movement.

But there was terrible violence in India, and Gandhi used it cleverly to his benefit. 

Today we’re seeing both peaceful passive resistance mixed with some violence and the inevitable looting on the streets of Egypt.  

Civilians – unarmed by law, are suddenly victims of marauding bands of street punks with knives and machetes.  Remember that the next time some Democrat wants to take your guns or limit your ammo supply.  Law and Order break down within 72 hours, anarchy takes over in about a week.  Do you really want to be unarmed with marauders just down the street?

Things may quiet in a few days as the protesters exhaust themselves, and food becomes scarce. Mubarak may hang on long enough for a peaceful handoff.

But what’s really next for Egypt?  Elections?  Real democracy?  Or another strongman?

Perennial snake and former IAEA inspector Mohammed El Baradei is waiting in the wings for his opportunity to take over.  He’s cutting deals with the Muslim Brotherhood.  Deals?  Hell, he’s been one of them for ages.  He’s the snake who kept Saddam’s WMD secrets quietly covered, gave Saddam early warning, and of late was doing the same thing for the Twelvers in Iran.

How many years would it take Egypt to get the elections thing down right?  Well, look at Iraq as an example.  My guess is at least ten years, – if they go that way.  

 

But my thinking is the Muslin Brotherhood is quietly waiting in the wings for events to play out.  They may not have planned or started this uprising, but they’ll take full advantage of it.  They are organized.  Let food become scarce, let people go unemployed a few months, let the Army and the Air Force go unpaid for a month.  Let the banks remain closed.  Maybe ~ just maybe ~ shut down the Suez.

Any new government will be weak, and an easy target for standard street-level terrorism, – killing policemen, car bombs, kidnappings, street-level extortion.  

THEN the MB will rise up and proclaim loudly that everything is the fault of the Great Satin [the USA] and the Little Satin [Israel].  They will offer up a leader, have the crowds take to the streets again, and POOF – you’ll see a fundamentalist government suddenly running Egypt.

The quickest way that new strongmen have consolidated power is to focus the people on an external enemy.  Israel is close at hand, as are our ships going through the Suez.  

Don’t let Obama’s hand-wringing and flustering fool you.  He’ll secretly be very pleased.

And if any of you think this doesn’t matter, remember there are US troops as part of the Multinational Sinai Peacekeeping Mission.

Yep, we’ve got kids in Harm’s Way.

   /s/  Iron Mike
   Old Soldier, – Still Good for Parts!

2 Responses to “Tears, Bloodshed, And Terror Ahead”

  1. Perplexed Senior

    In addition to the oppresive dictatorship that has ruled with an iron fist, with police power, since 1981, there is an economic component to this uprising. The cost of food, driven by the ethonal subsidies and the world wide corn shortage is a big factor. In the US the average family spends 10% of their income on food. In Egypt the average fmaily spends close to 40% for food. The average per person GDP in the US is $48K and in Egypt it is $2.7K. This is a very poor country and this is more economic than political. The labor unions with help from their socialist bretheren from the US and other countries have also helped to fuel the fires of this uprising and similar to the US unemployment in Egypt is around 10%. Tuesday may be the critical day with the million man march.

  2. Vigilante

    Gee, this stuff about Mohammed El Baradei is just made up, huh? ‘Part of the Muslim Brotherhood’ and the rest of it. What have you been reading? Or smoking?